23 Jun 2008

Posted by richeyxx on June 23rd, 2008 — Posted in English, Life & Bitch

Lately I have gotten myself into the extremely bad (and expensive) habit of looking at expensive watches. It all started when I was given a watch with a sizable price tag (well by sizable I mean in relative terms, which costs about 10 times as much as my last watch, which if you’ve been reading this blog, was a Seiko Arctura Kinetic).

Before that watch appeared in my balance sheet, I never thought much about watches at all, as I’ve been essentially living with electronic watches (Casio in particular) for pretty much all my life. I’ve heard about the watchmaking brands before, and my late mother had a few (which I shall talk a little about later), but I was never much into them. Watches to me was just what it was - a thing that tells you time of the day, days of the month, and (possibly) months of the year, which a Rolex, as well as a Seiko or a Casio, can do.

That was pretty much my perception of most watches, until now.

My life-long friend Derek had always been talking about watches. He of course had a lot in his collection - as far back as I can remember, I saw him with at least once a white Rolex Daytona Cosmograph and a Cartier Classic Santos (note the price tags - in US$, they’re not cheap indeed), amongst many others. I remembered asking about what watches should I start with if I’m to start getting into watches, he thought about it and answered, “a Patek Philippe, no doubt.”

But mind you that I was barely 22 at that time when he told me that, and I seriously cannot contemplate myself wearing one of those Patek timepieces, it would look so old and just wouldn’t match me at all.

Collecting these automatic mechanical watches are an expensive hobby indeed, with an adequate one (like my current one) costing at least tens of thousands of HK$, with some of the insanely expensive ones costing as much as a 2,000 Sq ft Palazzo flat (that means around HK$15 - 2xM, no joke).

My mother also had a few expensive watches, but I kind of figured nowadays that at the time she bought it, it was more for the socialising with colleagues rather than the collecting. She had 3 Rolexes - a gold ladies datejust, a ladies stainless steel datejust with jubilee strap (in Cantonese they will be called 金銀潤) and a Yachtmaster; & alongside that, a Vacheron Constantin which has quartz movement (i.e. not really valuable considering the make). They were all acquired a long time ago of course, and of not much value in terms of collectibles, and hence I eventually sold them all off as they were of no use to me. Not that I had much knowledges in watches at that time at all, and even with my current knowledge in watches, I wouldn’t regreat selling them off (with the mildest possible exception of the Constantin for sentimental reaons, but then again it’s a quartz watch).

Conventional HKers’ (that is the 40-50 year-olds’) wisdom would tell you that higher-end watches like Rolexes are preferred because they were highly liquid (i.e. if you’re in need of some quick cash you can just take them to a pawnbroker shop and get some cash, at a discount of course). Whilst today most people (especially the younger age) think that this is more of an urban fallacy dated from historical times, I tend to agree with that statement, to a certain extent.

If you don’t know about recent watch history, most of the expensive watches that people talk about now and hen are mechanical watches, which either needs to be hand-wound or automatic i.e. self-wound. They were expensive because of the craftsmanship that goes into each and every watch. In the 80’s however, with the advent of quartz and digital watches (mostly from Japan) the Swiss watchmaking industry was nearly killed off because those watches were simply much more accurate and much cheaper, it was only after the emergence of Swatch Group, who then bought many dying watchmakers and re-branded them, that the mechanical watches gained their popularity again. Therefore, nowadays these mechanical watches have re-invented themselves somewhat as really complicated jewelry, rather than a solid timepiece like they were 50-60 years ago.

It doesn’t mean, however, that current day mechanical watches aren’t accurate at all. Ok so they’re not as accurate as the atomic watch in research labs but they’re not far off it. This is due to the advent of technolgy that allow parts to be made with microscopic precision. They can tell accurate time for years without much servicing (although most watch brands will recommended that mechanical watches should be serviced every 3 - 5 years. It’s conventional wisdom that once a watch starts going wrong it might be too late to fix).

Having acquired some knowledge in watches, I came to appreciate that what kind of watches would command that investment-grade quality that people seeks (i.e. their values can go up, not just down). Ok, so if you take a Rolex to a pawnbroker you can still get some cash, but say if you take a Vacheron Constantin then the same might not happen, chances are some pawnbrokers are fucking with you, and merely trying to scab the watch off you cheap. (I know that would happen because that was what happened to me some years ago)

Hence if you want to sell your watch at marginally better value, your next best bet is a second-hand watchshops in the TST districts, but what you’re dealing with are essentially people with (often) detailed knowledge in watches (probably more so than your mere pawnbrokers), so unless the watches you’re trying to sell are really worth something, they will seriously discount them.

From what I gathered, as long as your watch has a lot of diamonds on it (such as some models of Rolexes and Frank Mullers), then you can sell them off for (possibly) quite adequate prices in second-hand watchshops. However that’s hardly professional if you ask me.

You can also go to the auctioneers to try and get your watches auctioned, but note that these people have extensive knowledges on literally ALL brands of watches currently available for sale on the planet, so chances of you auctioning off an average watch with these people are pretty slim (I gathered that they will tell you politely to fuck off). Maybe you can do so in some mid-range auctioneers in the UK, but I’m not aware of any mid-range auctioneers in HK, except the big players like Christies and Sotherby’s.

(Editor’s note: In fact, this Patek Philipe watch - the legendary 5002P - was auctioned at HK’s Sotherby’s recently for HK$11.75m, to show you what kind of watches qualifies to be auctioned)

I can neither call myself a watch-collector nor a hobbyist because currently I only have 1 watch in my collection (and it’s by no way a collectible), having started so late (although some say you’re not too late to start). The watches that I desire at my current (financial) level are hardly investment-grade (althought they may be so in 20 years time), although they may have some value if they were to be sold at second-hand watchshops.

Even so, I have already setup a road-map (sort of like a roadmap to peace that Blair and Bush were trying to set up) of what I am to get for my up-and-coming watch collection. they’re -

  1. Watch to wear to work everyday i.e. a workhorse;
  2. Watch to wear at weekends with your casual wear;
  3. Watch to wear at meetings with clients;
  4. Watch to wear at special occasions;
  5. Watch to add in your collection just to make people go “fucking wow!”

Before I start, I should most probably state out some of my personal preferences for watches (I will add more or reinforce them when I’m talking about some of the above categories):-

a) I’m not a big fan of chronographs and fat watches (ie. with a face diameter of more than 45mm). As mechanically complicated as chronographs are, since I’m not a sporty kind of person I hardly use my watch to time things, so if it’s just to look at then I would prefer not to have one (unless the model really struck me as great looking). Also, as I don’t have a fat wrist, so any watch with a diameter of larger than 45mm would actually look funny on my wrist (althought my cousin argues that I can probably wear a 45mm without any problem). Same goes for small diameter watches (what most would call boy-sizes);

b) As a particularly young person, I’m not inclined to acquire a watch that probably looks older than I do, with of without my clothes on;

c) My current financial position wouldn’t allow me to buy exquisitely expensive collectible watches, so I shalln’t include them here. It’s known that some watches are practically difficult to get, especially if they have known investment values. Hence I will just include tangible watches, those which I could get with my current financial resources, without putting much strain on myself;

d) Quartz or digital watches are definitely out of the question, and I would much prefer an in-house movement rather than a modified movement. By in-house movement that I mean that the movement to be developed by the brand itself rather than modifying a box-standard movement i.e. ETA movements. ETA is a watch movement maker monopoly in Switzerland, owned by Swatch group. Most of the mid-range expensive watches base their movement on certain ETA movement, and then modify them to get more out of it. This relationship works something like AMG modifying Mercedes-Benz engines, or Nismo with Nissan.

Based on the above categories, I don’t really need a lot of watches in my life. As I’ve said, once you’ve acknowledged that current mechanical watches are more like expensive jewleries where a lot of design and craftsmanship had gone into it, you will start to appreciate which kind of watches in the market has investment value.

Let’s start with (1) - Watch to wear to work everyday i.e. a workhorse

I would define a workhorse as something that you will wear everyday to work, and even off work when you go out with your friends. It’s probably preferable that they should be heavy duty, depending on your job. Some people would put Panerai watches in this category, but since my job doesn’t require heavy duty work (in fact, it required me to wear suits or at least dress smart casual most of the time), thus my workhorse watch doesn’t require heavy duty characteristics, looking pragmatic would probably make more sense. Althugh, to be really honest, if I found the right Panerai, it would most definitely end up in this slot as well.
IWC_Port_auto

Hence, my choice of a workhorse would be an IWC Portuguese Automatic. Some might argue that an IWC Portuguese Chronograph-Automatic maybe a better choice, but just in case you don’t know, the Chronograph version is actually based on an ETA chronograph (Valjoux 7750 to be exact, but to be honest it’s heavily modified so that its quality surpasses the original ETA design), whilst the Automatic uses Calibre 50010 movement (based on Calibre 5000) with a patented Pellaton winding system, which is IWC in-house (editor: you will also notice the price difference between the automatic and the chrono-automatic is around 60%).

The power reserve (how long it would last without being worn) for the Automatic is 8 days (i.e. 192 hours) theorectically, but mechanically limited to 7 days (168 hours), whilst the Chronograph Automatic is 44 hours. It has sapphire glass, stainless steel case and black crocodile leather strap (there are white and rose gold versions but I like stainless steel more).

(2) - Watch to wear at weekends with your casual wear

01062008137

This is my current watch and although I wear it to work I would rather like it to be my weekend watch. A standard Bvlgari Bvlgari watch with face diameter of 42mm, sapphire glass and stanless steel case and strap, it’s not a complicated watch in comparison to the above, in fact its movement is also ETA based. It goes with well casual wear, and IMO being simple is everything in weekends.

Although Bvlgari is not a top-tier watchmaker, I’m sure that their watches are gradually getting some attention, as some of them are featured in the recent Iron Man movie, as worn by Robert Downey Jr. Be sure to check it out next time you watch it. Also, some top Bvlgari watches has their own in-house movement, which prices are in the top end league, which could potentially qualify as collectibles.

More complicated version of the same model has a chronograph movement (also base ETA 2894-2), but not to my taste really (at the time I was given a choice to change to another watch if this one wasn’t satisfactory, but I declined partly because I quite like it being simple as it is).

This is probably the category which I shall be updating the most (after the workhorses), and just keep adding to.

(3) - Watch to wear at various meetings

This is actually a more complicated category, because of my job nature, I will need to attend both internal and external meetings. Although internal meetings can be sometimes very brief (and a workhorse would suffice), external meetings are not, and meeting with top management of listed companies means that you’re under constant scrutiny both in appearance as well as in terms of your professional ability. A meeting watch cannot disappoint - it has to be class - but at the same time cannot be too flamboyant/ dazzling to that it attracts (sometimes) unwanted attention (or at worst, looks better than your client’s watch). I have shortlisted 2 watches under this category:

5139G_001_Patek

The first one is this Patek Philippe - the 5139G. This is one of the many watches which the maker had showcased in the 2008 Basel watch fair, and if you cared to check the price tag then you will certainly know that this watch, along with all other Patek watches, are anything but cheap (This watch is already US$75K (HK$585K))

Although it may have a relatively small diameter (38mm), it makes up for it by being ultra-thin (14.6mm!). Given the fact that it has a fucking perpectual calender you can simply tell how much craftsmanship had went into these Patek watches. Of course this Patek watch runs with its in-house calibre 240Q, and it’s well know that Patek manufactures EVERY SINGLE watch-part where most makers sources and modifies 3rd-party parts. The movement bears the Geneva Seal, a predigree, almost, that is reserved only for the best watchmakers in Switzerland (and is granted by law), all these contributes to the reason why a Patek watch is so damn pricey amongst other watches.

A Patek watch absolutely satisfies my definition a meeting watch (class but not too flashy) because it’s engraved deep within Patek’s watchmaking philosophy that the watches are not made flashy (i.e. no visible working parts showing), word goes around that if you want a flashy watch then don’t buy a Patek, but with a name that says it all, you really don’t need any flashy bits showing.

In terms of practicality, it’s not easy buying a Patek watch that you want, and you will need to be put into a painfully long waiting list and probably have to wait for years until you can get hold of one of them. It’s great marketing if you ask me, because in microeconomics supply and demand determines the price, and where demand exceedingly outweighs the supply, it’s only natural that the price goes up. Simply economics.

My second meeting watch is this one:

A_lange_Sohne_langematik perpetual

The A. Lange & Sohne Langematik Perpetual (yes it’s German). This is possibly the only non-Swiss watch brand that I really like (afterall, Germans are famous for their engineering on power machines known as cars, but not really timepieces).

Nevertheless, this perpetual calender may look a little more flashy, but at the same time has an unspoken elegence that easily matches the Patek 5139G. Both are amazing to look at, dazzling yet unintrusive, appealing to both the layman and the fellow hobbyist and professional collectors. While A. Lange & Sohne doesn’t bear the same statute that the Swiss government grants to their master watchmakers (because Germans don’t have such a thing), in the world of watches they’re of the same renowned standard and status as Patek Philippe, Chopard and the like.

Now comes the crunch - the price - US$80K (HK$624K), and yes, more than the Patek.

(4) - Watch to wear at special occasions

By special occasions I mean wedding ceremonies and feasts and relatives, friends and colleagues, reunions and various gatherings that requires one to dress at least presentable. Whilst it’s nearly impossible to outshine the main characters of these occasions (unless you’re a public figure), the watches you wear are mainly to show off to acquintances that you know not too well (so yeah, a watch to show-off basically). Some of the watches that I think could be meeting watches but weren’t, because either they’re too bling or too busy, were put here.

As these are mainly show-off watches, it means that they’re almost belong in the collectibles category as well.

I have shortlisted 2 watch models here:

covsto406_2

(editor note: No, the above watches are just different colours of the same model, in Pink Gold and Platinum. The tourbillon is that little transparent circle at the 6 o’clock position)

The above model is the Jaeger-LeCoultre Master Tourbillon. To my surprise when I first heard about Jaeger watches, they are relatively much much more expensive than their fashion items (i.e. clothes). A Tourbillon is a particular watch design (from 2 centuries ago) that gives extreme accuracy by cancelling out gravitational forces on the movement (apprently it’s the only workable design against gavity). When you wear your watch, it’s subject to all kinds of gavitational forces because (a) you move your hands around, and (b) your hand is not in horizontal position most of the time; and so the deisgn sets to eliminate these forces.

As with most Jaeger watches, this one comes in its own in-house movement (Calibre 978). Also, most Tourbillon watches I would put under the show-off watch category because to me it’s just so mesmerising (flashy to some) to look at the mechanical watch in motion. This Tourbillon does one circulation in one minute (a.k.a. the 1-minute Tourbillon), and FYI, most tourbillon are in the HK$XXXK price range as they’re considered to be quite complicated and technically challenging to manufacture, hence you will find that some of the most expensive timepieces (limited editions) have a tourbillon movement within it.

It’s diameter is 41.5mm and obviously comes with sapphier glass. Price? US$72K (around HK$561K).

The second watch model I’ve shortlisted is this one:

Chopard_LUC_Tour

This is the Chopard L.U.C. Tourbillon. Chopard IS up there with Patek Philippe, some would consider better. If Patek Philippe lacks flashiness, Chopard lacks none of it. This is the stanless steel (i.e. cheaper) version of the model, but its price is already in the 6-figure US$ region (US$105K to be exact, that’s HK$820K). Face diameter of 40.5mm, with thickness 10.9mm it’s not a very big watch, and if there’s any down point about this watch - it’s hand-wound and not automatic, but nonetheless the watch makes up for it by having a 8-day power reserve. In-house movement (L.U.C. 4T) and although it doesn’t come with the Geneva Seal due to some technicality issues (assembled in Fleurier and not Canton of Geneva), it’s of no doubt the highest complexity and quality.

(5) - Watch to add in your collection just to make people go “fucking wow!”

This is the last and final category of my watches. In this category, you won’t necessary have to wear these watches, and you probably won’t want to for fear of breaking it, but they are just damn expensive because they’re so rare (primarily they’re limited edition productions). Price can be relaxed a little bit here.

Apart from being rare, there must also be a “fucking wow!” factor to these watches, simply because they’re so much different from what you see on the streets. Most concept watches belongs to this category, such as this Royal Oak Carbon concept watch from Audemars Piguet, but you see, the problem with most concept watches are - they’re not for sale, and are concept only (just like concept cars). Therefore, it’s always difficult to find such a watch with all of the above qualities.

Until now.

Defy Extreme Zero G

The above beast is the Defy Extreme Zero G Tourbillon from Zenith. Mind you that the picture doesn’t tell you everything - although the whole thing looks plastic, the watch case is actually made of titanium, even the strap. It doesn’t just have a Tourbillon movement, in fact it as a gyroscope cage Tourbillon i.e. the movement can stay horizontal no matter what orientation the watch is at. Zenith had actually improved the Tourbillon design to a such a degree so as to make the watch totally free from all gravitational movements (hence the term Zero G). It’s so damn cool that it even has its own page separate from the Zenith site.

The watch is currently not on sale, but there is a booking form to put you on the waiting list so that when it comes into existence, you can be one of its first owners; also it was made known to the world that this watch would cost US$500K. So is this a concept watch? It is, but different from other unobtainable, there’s certainly a strong possibility that they will be produced.  Diameter is 46.5mm, and although I have no idea about its thickness, it must be pretty damn thick.

Conclusion

I can’t give it a conclusion as yet because this is only the beginning and certainly not the end, and I shall talk about more of watches later.

19 Jun 2008

Posted by richeyxx on June 19th, 2008 — Posted in English, Econ & Finance

It’s amazing what boredom can do - because I was simply bored, I took data from http://www.oanda.com/ and plotted graphs of the exchange rate for various currencies, mainly the US$, EUR and RMB. (I shalln’t do that with HK$ as it’s pegged to the US$)

Well, here’s what I get. Data started from 1 Jul 2005 up to 19 Jun 2008, and it’s indexed at 0 at that date. Percentages in the y-axis represents increase/ decrease in incremental percentage:

USD against other currencies

That above graph was USD against other currencies.

Next up -Other currencies against the RMB:

other currencies against the RMB

Finally, EUR against other currencies:

EUR against other currencies

Regardless of macroeconomic factors which I’ve talked about many times, there are both clear trends for the US$ and the EUR - EUR is getting stronger by the day and vice versa for the US$. However the trend for RMB is less obvious. Whilst the RMB is appreciating against currencies such as US$, Kiwi, GBP, HK$, Yen, Korean Won, Indian Rupee, it’s depreciating against the EUR, Swiss Franc, SGD, AUD and Thai Baht.

The initial purpose of this number-crunching exercise was to investigate into what kind of reserve currencies China had diversified into, it sidestepped a little bit as the People’s Bank of China only published gold and forex reserve in US$ (and I suspect that figure is now an aggregate amount converted into US$), it made as little disclosure as an ant. Therefore tracking capital infow and outflow into China is a mightily difficult task even for large investment banks, let alone moi.

This exercise is by far over, but so far a couple of things are pretty much certain:-

  1. The US is applying anything but a strong US$ policy, just look at the above graph;
  2. China’s RMB is slowly diversifying into a currency pegged to a basket, as you can see from the graph some of the currencies against RMB (such as EUR and CHF) are moving in orchestrated movements, some suspicion there huh? Also there are quite some movements in RMB exchange rates, contrary to popular beliefs;
  3. The EUR had poised itself to become the most powerful currency in the world in possibly 3-5 years time, stronger than the pound.

More of this kind of stuff later.

16 Jun 2008

Posted by richeyxx on June 15th, 2008 — Posted in English, Econ & Finance

The global financial community is undergoing the single largest bet of its time.
That bet being – whether the FED will start to raise interest rates to fight escalating inflation.

There are only 2 sides of the coin of course, either – (a) the FED will raise interest rates or (b) the FED will not raise interest rates.  Mind you that, given (b), what the Fed then does after that is actually quite unimportant.

As a current property speculator, I just knew too well the implications of the FED raising rates to fight inflation, which almost means a very drastic change of my current year investment plan.  I have hedged my bets, on the other hand, moving all monies out from stocks and into mostly RMB and cash, and although being speculating in properties leave me exposed to interest rate risks, that particular property has a full-year before I actually need to pay up (which is becoming increasingly likely that I will live in it for quite a couple of years), in my case the uncertainty can be spread out over the time horizon, which is a bonus.

I am a firm believer that the FED does not have enough room to maneuver the US economy through an interest rate hike.  Yes, inflation is hitting high (mainly headline inflation); in terms of core inflation we are still in the acceptable area so far.  That means – yes it’s hurting, but not that much.

I can probably explain the reason behind the seemingly orchestrated recent hawkish comments from Bernanke, Paulson and also Greenspan: the first 2 are US officials, and to prevent the dollar from sliding they must implement by words of mouth a credible notion that they will either raise interest rates or intervene in the forex market.  I agree that if the dollar slides further then that spells potentially uncontrollable inflation, but currently I still believe that the US will try to suppress inflation by the use of currency intervention rather than the use of interest rates, which explains the reason behind the hawkish comments.

As for Greenspan, well he had been advocating an interest rate rise for a while now, ever since he changed his comment that the US recession is not as bad as it seems (which I disagree with, I am one of those who thinks that the US is heading for at least a short recession this year).  Even if the US could handle it, a subsequent interest rate rise will certainly push it into the red, if not for a short while.

The other side of the argument is simple – they’re taking in all those hawkish comments for granted and thinks that they FED will end its credit crisis-induced monetary expansion, and decided to change their mind and admit that lately inflation got the better hand of things.  Upon the newly-reincarnated hawkish outlook, US$ rebounded 2.3% in a week, and at the same time the EUR dropped around 2.7%, which the Irish were blamed for.

The whole world is watching at the US, and whether they will ‘live up to the expectations’ that interest-rate policies (and hence monetary policies) are about to change from down to up, or they are simply buffing.

10 Jun 2008

Posted by richeyxx on June 9th, 2008 — Posted in English, Econ & Finance, News & Comnents

In case you didn’t know already, on Friday night, oil price rose by about US$10 in a single trading session, literally wiping out all the losses made in the past week or two. Not many people knew what was happening – maybe it was because of the fact that commodities such as oil are also influenced greatly by geopolitical reasons, which are simply factors that are beyond the financial market’s control and tends to behave rather stochastically, it could be profit-taking for those short-sellers who were simply riding on the news about the inevitable demise of high oil prices.

Nevertheless, if in the short run the downward pressure isn’t as great as we have initially thought, then when the short run becomes the long run there’s simply no way in hell that oil prices are going to come back down.

How will that affect HK’s stock market? Well, as we speak, after lunch the HSI opened at 1,023 points lower than on Friday, and it seems that the public holiday didn’t cushion the large US drop on Friday. In other words – not good.

Given that the most recent G8 meeting was all but constructive IMO – seriously, how can finger-pointing be constructive at all? But as currency debates were laid bare on the table, so were energy and inflation. Living under a monetarist regime means that as the Federal Reserve further depress its interest rate, inflation is going to spark higher.

So, was the latest comment made by Bernanke about the FED focusing on inflation and playing down unemployment credible? Well his words are as credible as his actions, and as long as the Fed is tied by its twin mandate of maintaining both low unemployment rate and inflation, we will be forever skeptical towards such ranting even by a top central banker. In Chinese we call that “出口術” (literally meaning: playing tricks with words).

Even as the US$ surges after comments made by the FED and Paulson respectively, it’s notable that (1) HK$ had depreciated against US$, and (2) RMB had further risen against the US$ (this, of course, was the main reason behind the G8 finger-pointing).

I seriously do not believe that the FED has any credible room for another rate hike (ok so after 0.25 - 0.50% what do you have left), after all, Ben Bernanke is not Paul Volcker, and whoever becomes president of the USA after the November election, you can be sure that he will point all his tiny little fingers at the FED. Although the FED is in theory independent from the administration, but given all the orchestrated actions between the FED and the treasury in recent months following the credit crisis, It’s probably coincidence that the credit crisis happened before people pays any significant attention towards inflation, if the vice versa had happened I’m sure that the outcome we might be getting today will be a little different from now.

2 Jun 2008

Posted by richeyxx on June 1st, 2008 — Posted in News & Comnents, English, Econ & Finance, Musings

It’s of course no doubt that inflation is the sole reason for the upside risks on the interest rates that all central banks set, especially the FED of the US.

Given the recent highly publicized protests by lorry drivers and fishermen, in both the UK and parts of EU, it’s becoming apparent that high oil prices are hurting the economy.  Even for high growth countries, namely the emerging markets, the pinch is there, just a little subdued because of robust growth so far.

We all know that if the oil prices remains as high as it is (if now higher), sooner or later economic growth will be hurt.  We may have already seen some of its effect creeping through America as people are taking less trips to the mall on their trucks (I don’t use the word cars because the majority of the US citizens use trucks, which wastes a lot more fuel), and in the EU high-profile protests as we saw in the news.

What the late Milton Friedman had told us through his permanent income hypothesis is that consumption will only change in respond to a change in permanent income; transitory income has pretty much no effect on consumption pattern.  Therefore, when you see Americans start to adjust their consumption pattern by traveling less on cars and shopping for bargain food at Walmart etc., you know that the effect of inflation on income is already permanent, and then the effect of the change in consumption pattern on demand is also permanent.  It’s only time before we see that happening in the EU and the emerging economies.

It’s already been widely speculated that oil prices should come crashing down signaling the end of yet another bull run on commodities, and indeed, as traders really do fear that the US will be showing less demand due to change in consumption pattern.  Inflation is self-fulfilling through the mechanism of the expected inflation i.e. if you expect inflation to rise next year then chances are it will also rise next year.

For a country that is growing at a fast pace e.g. China, the effect of inflation maybe partly offset by the corresponding increase in salary of the workforce (but as food prices and oil prices are excluded from most CPI calculation due to its volatility, there is a hidden element in the data that we cannot see just by comparing the numbers), however, once the growth starts to slow then inflation starts to become much more of a problem.  In other words, once the demand-pull effect of inflation starts to die down, then the cost-push effect of inflation becomes more apparent than ever.

For the rest of the western world, the cost-push inflation is already too overwhelming for some to bear.  Hence, given the above, to think that the credit crisis had recovered from its trough now is dubious, because inflation can cause the next wave of foreclosures, puts further downward pressure on the already battered property market.  Although the US property seems to be hanging on by now, but it is by no means safe.

Inflation will create tremendous upside risks on the interest rates.  When that happens, corporate profits and investments will be both down, which could eventually lead to high level of layoffs, hence higher unemployment and potential failure to keep up with mortgage payments.  These foreclosures can also be escalated by falling property prices, but then that should be expected a few years ago when Mr. Greenspan aggressively cut rates in midst of the 9/11 events.  It’s all a vicious circle really, and is already well into the feedback process.

As I’ve said before, if oil prices eventually comes crashing down we shall see another round of asset price boom (and bust) in Hong Kong, fuelled by high inflation and low nominal interest rates.  As inflation climbs higher and higher, given its self-fulfilling nature, even if the FED decides to raise rates this year, unless they perform Volcker-style hikes it basically has no net effect on real interest rate.  Given the current FED focused response to economic downturn and less on inflation, even if Bernanke was renowned for his researches on inflation targeting, one serious cannot comprehend that he will perform massive Volcker-style rate hikes, not at least until heads start to roll.

Even if Obama wins the presidential race and decides to raise tax and create more graves for his own people, the FED will most probably forced to respond by cutting interest rates to prevent the decrease in output caused by the tax raise.  Unless, of course, they went the opposite war, creating even more graves.  Either way (and mark my words), I can foresee another 1997-style property boom just lurking around the corner for the Hong Kong economy, if not arrived already.

Just like my new firm’s motto – Always one step ahead people.